Iceland: Fish and Investment Banking

In 2003, Iceland's three biggest banks had assets of only a few billion dollars, about 100% of the nation's GDP. By the mid of 2006, the banking assets grew over USD 140 billion and were so much greater than Iceland's GDP, that there was no purpose in calculating the percentage. Many bankers, economists and authors believe that this was a phase when the banking system achieved rapid expansion. The harsh truth is that Iceland was no more a country, but a hedge fund.
The three major banks were pumping money into the Icelandic economy, driving the value of stocks and real estate crazy. Students in universities were fleeing from the economics of fishing to the economics of money.

This materialistic ambition turned out to have a downside. The collapse of the three major banks resulted in banking losses of more than USD 100 billion. For a country with a population of 300,000 the losses per person works out to around USD 330,000. The losses do not end here. Moreover, there were personal losses incurred through foreign currency speculation and collapses in the stock market. In 2011, the public debt per person stood at USD 42,714 more than USA's USD 33,555.

Learning points:

- Too much banking not good for the economic health. Do not create fake capital by trading in assets at inflated values. For example, I own apples and you own oranges. We agree that each fruit is worth millions. You sell me oranges and I sell you apples for millions. Now, we are no more fruitsellers but banks with assets worth millions.

- Give fish a chance. It will work again!

- Do not buy a Range Rover or Bentley if you cannot afford it. In the end, you are left with two options, either you burn it to get insurance money or ship it to a customer to earn in foreign currency.

The blind eye

Back in 2004, the biggest wall street banks had created the instrument for the self-destruction. The credit default swap enabled investors to bet against the price of any given bond. In simple terms, it was an insurance policy, but with a crack: the buyer did not need to own the insured asset (i.e. the risks incidental to the ownership were never transferred in actual). Consider the credit swaps the titanic and the recession the ice berg. The collision being caused by the so called sane people residents of the insane world.

We all observed the the false boom in the first world developed economies, post 2002. The economic growth was super heated and fueled by borrowing. The US national debt, alone is more than USD 15.5 trillions, and the average debt per citizen is more than USD 50,000. For a moment, imagine the global debt and the consequences that will follow up in the coming times (hope it does not). Human kind has never, for sure, witnessed this kind of accumulation of debt in world history.

Private enterprises, majorly banks, were bailed out by the local and federal governments, after all the financial institutions were big credit lenders to the governments and local bodies. The governments plunged themselves into debt and any increase in interest rates means a greater proportion of the budget being consumed to meet the interest payments on debts.

In my coming blogs, I will be analyzing the blunders in Greece and Iceland in particular.