a Know the Known: Oil
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Will the World enter in to a global financial crisis like it did in 2008, due to another Oil upsurge?

Why is oil so important to the global economy? Has its importance gotten greater or lessened over time?
Undoubtedly, there has been huge progress in lessening the world’s dependence on oil as a commodity, from energy-saving innovations to the fracking revolutions. But the fact is that global demand for energy keeps on rising at a greater pace as the populations achieve higher standards of living. For example how many Chinese drove cars a decade ago? Now it’s the world’s biggest auto market.

In Libya the ongoing skirmishes between the government and rebel group have reduced the daily production of crude oil dramatically from 1.6 million bpd to an estimated below 200,000 bpd. In Iraq there has been an upsurge in conflicts between various militias which has interrupted production. In Nigeria, production has fallen due to leaks caused by the trouble makers. Moreover, Syria is in chaos and Egypt is still unstable.

The Oil price has a record of plunging the globe into recession. Kirk Spano, the founder of Bluemound Asset Management, assessed that the spiking oil prices in 1973, 1980, 1991, 2001 and 2007 contributed to a greater or lesser degree to the economic recessions of 1973-74, 1980-81, 1991-92, 2001-03 and 2007-08 that were painful for all equity investors. The global financial crisis of 2008 was no different with a sudden spike in oil prices to $147 a barrel that broke the back of several economies.

It’s a problem when a country like Japan which is technically advanced has to shut down its nuclear stations post the earthquake or when a country which does not fall in the fault line, Germany, has to do the same post the public vote on the matter. Oil is abundant, safe and easily consumed at a price.
Are we not sensing a déjà vu this summer?

Iraq plays an important role for market stability. With current production of 3.3 mbpd Iraq is the second largest producer in the OPEC cartel and it has the potential to become larger player. Current predictions by the International Energy Agency (IEA) show Iraqi production growing to 4.4mbpd in 2015 and to nearly 6mbpd by 2020.

An eventual decline in Iraqi exports would mount pressure on energy hungry economies of China and India to increase their imports of Iranian oil. Russian oil exports would become crucial for global markets, potentially further strengthening the former Soviet Union’s position in Ukraine. Finally, a major spike in oil prices would help regimes like Venezuela too. If Iraq falls, oil prices would shoot up breaking previous highs and spread unrest in the region.


Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Denying developing countries access to coal is like restricting food aid to the poor

Coal mining plays a significant role in many national economies. Developing countries rank highly among the world's major coal producing countries. In cases of China, India and South Africa coal is utilized for domestic electricity generation. Moreover, these countries have export markets generating export revenue. Colombia and Indonesia earn considerable export revenues from the coal production industry which is highly export-oriented. Coal currently provides 30% of the global energy needs, 41% of its electricity and 68% of its steel.
Coal in Electricity Generation
Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world with an estimated population of 184.35 million in 2012 - 2013. With a growth rate of 2.0 percent in 2012/2013, it is estimated that Pakistan will move to the fifth position by 2050. With rapid urbanization and population boom in major cities of Pakistan, the demand for electricity continues to exceed the supply. As per the Power and Water Ministry the supply of electricity stands at only 12,150 MW while demand is 16,400 MW creating a shortfall of 4,250 MW. Opportunity lies in the crisis, they say.

Increased investment in the technological development and higher labor productivity through improvement in education, health and training facilities are the main modes of increasing productivity of human resources. But how is this all possible without an investment in the energy sector, primarily coal.

Apart from being the sixth most populous state, the country is the sixth richest nation in respect of coal reserves, amounting to more than 200 billion tons. For further clarity, these coal reserves account for 2% of the reserves in the Asia-Pacific region and 0.2% of the world. Of this 200 billion tons, 185.5 billion tons (93%) of the coal reserves are in Thar in the province of Sindh which is 8 hours drive from the coastal city of Karachi. All coal is sub-bituminous and lignite in grade and is optimum for the energy sector. With the Chinese assistance Pakistan has 3 X 50 MW power plants in Lakhra, Balochistan and only 15 MW is being produced which is only 0.1% of the actual energy mix as displayed above. Majority of the electrification is via Oil which has traded above the $ 100 mark for quite some time in the international market and Pakistan nearly imports all its oil requirements. The other primary source is Gas. Gas is currently being increasingly consumed by the industries, households and the transportation sector in Pakistan. This has caused bottlenecks in timely supply of gas resulting in shortages and power cuts. The other source is hydroelectric where Pakistan faces an issue of water shortages in rivers and banks which have sources in Indian controlled Kashmir. There have been several rounds of dialogues between the two neighbors India and Pakistan to abide by the Indus Water Treaty and Pakistan has voiced its concern on international conventions and forums regarding India building dams in Kashmir. 

The current energy mix is quite expensive which is causing unrest in public and pushing businesses out of the country. The Pakistani economy can save around $26 billion in fuel costs over the next 15 years if thermal plants of only 420MW are shifted to coal.
Many of the countries with significant coal reserves also have significant coal production. However, Pakistan is counted amongst those nations whose coal reserves are yet to be utilized at a large scale. This provides economic opportunity to further develop the coal extraction industry and poses a great potential for a secure and affordable domestic energy supply using the indigenous coal reserves.

Pakistan currently imports more than 6 million tons of coal annually to meet the requirement of its thriving cement and ailing steel industry resulting in loss of foreign reserves and lost employment opportunities at home.

The current prime minister of Pakistan, Mr. Nawaz Sharif and his government, have several times shown interest in setting up greenfield power projects in Gadani and converting diesel and furnace oil based thermal power plants to coal. There has been no constructive talks on how could Pakistan mobilize its internal resource to attract capital inflow.

Earlier governments had policies directing towards exploiting the local Thar coal reserves to produce energy, but due to Asian Development Bank’s withdrawal of USD 1.4 billion in finance, Pakistan will resort to coal imports, atleast in the short run, to provide cheap electricity to the consumers and breathe life into industries, textile in particular. It appears that multilateral banks listen only to their donors, not their customers. And donor governments, like the US and the EU, are more interested in being politically correct on climate control than actually addressing poverty. It is interesting to note that US is the largest producer of coal, accounting for 13.4% of the global coal production and consumes 88% of the coal produced domestically and half of the electricity produced in the country is generated through coal.

For critics: Coal has a bad reputation due to the widely held view that it causes global warming and is responsible for death of many miners. What people don't tend to realize that coal has changed the living conditions of many in the developing countries such as India and China. For example, China, a model country for the developing world, has witnessed 536% growth in GDP since 1990 and more than 660 million people have been lifted out of poverty. Today more than 99% of the Chinese population has access to electricity. Coal has proven to be a "critical enabler" for successful economies. This has helped countries to further invest in cleaner technology and renewable energy resources. Coal is potentially the "fuel" towards any successful economy.